This article is part of an ongoing, county-by-county, industry overview of the Tri County Area. This article covers Shift Share in Eaton County.

What is Shift Share?

Shift-share analysis is a regional economic analysis technique used to examine the factors contributing to employment or economic growth in a specific region. It helps policymakers and analysts understand how much of a region’s job growth is due to various reasons including national, industrial, or local. Most importantly the “Competitive Effect” indicates how much of overall job change is the result of some unique competitive advantage of the region.^[1]

To define the terms included in this analysis: Net Effect is the sum of the National Effect (reflecting overall job growth driven by the national economy), the Industry Shift Effect (showing how national industry trends impact the region), and the Competitive Effect (indicating how local competitive advantages or disadvantages influence job growth beyond national trends).

Local Shift Share in the County

To analyze Shift Share in Eaton County, we will use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). NAICS organizes economic activity into a structured hierarchy for businesses based on the type of work they do. Sectors are broad categories used to group similar types of economic activity, classified by two-digit codes. Industries are detailed classifications that focus on the specific business operations within those sectors, organized by six-digit codes.

Figure 1 illustrates the top five sectors by Competitive Effect in Eaton County. Three of the five industries are experiencing a positive Competitive Effect. However, the Construction and Public Administration sectors have a negative Competitive Effect, but a positive National Effect.  This suggests that while the construction and public administration sectors are growing nationally, they are underperforming or declining in Eaton County. The positive national trend highlights a missed opportunity for local growth, likely due to factors such as limited investment or workforce shortages. These challenges may persist, as Eaton County continues to face financial strain in 2025, which is impacting its ability to fund infrastructure and maintain essential public services.^[2]

Figure 1: Five sectors in Eaton County by Competitive Effect, 2023

  Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

Additionally, for the fiscal year 2024/25, Eaton County is expecting a $1.3 million shortfall.  Without additional revenue, the County will be forced to reduce the level of services it provides to address the shortfalls in each fiscal year.^[3] It is possible that some of the public administration positions have been reduced to account for this gap in funding.

 Figure 2: Shift-Share Analysis of Six-Digit NAICS Industries in Eaton County, 2018-2023

 

Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

When breaking down NAICS codes, more insight is provided on how each industry in different sectors compares to the U.S. counterpart. Industry trends are shown below:

• Commercial Machinery Repair and Maintenance experienced positive growth across all four shift-share components. Notably, Eaton County captured a disproportionately high share of that growth, as reflected in the strong Competitive Effect relative to the smaller National Effect.
• New Motor Vehicle Parts Merchant Wholesalers showed a negative Industry Shift but a positive Competitive Effect, meaning the industry is declining nationally, yet Eaton County is outperforming the U.S. in job growth for this sector.
• The Direct Property and Casualty Insurers industry is declining nationally due to a negative Industry Shift. But the industry is growing in Eaton County due to local factors, as shown by its positive Competitive Effect.