This article is part of an ongoing, county-by-county, industry overview of the Tri County Area. This article covers Shift Share in Clinton County.

What is Shift Share?

Shift-share analysis is a regional economic analysis technique used to examine the factors contributing to employment or economic growth in a specific region. It helps policymakers and analysts understand how much of a region’s job growth is due to various reasons including national, industrial, or local. Most importantly the “Competitive Effect” indicates how much of overall job change is the result of some unique competitive advantage of the region.1

To define the terms included in this analysis: Net Effect is the sum of the National Effect (reflecting overall job growth driven by the national economy), the Industry Shift Effect (showing how national industry trends impact the region), and the Competitive Effect (indicating how local competitive advantages or disadvantages influence job growth beyond national trends).

Local Shift Share in the County

To analyze Shift Share in Clinton County, we will use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). NAICS organizes economic activity into a structured hierarchy for businesses based on the type of work they do. Sectors are broad categories used to group similar types of economic activity, classified by two-digit codes. Industries are detailed classifications that focus on the specific business operations within those sectors, organized by six-digit codes.

Figure 1 illustrates the top five sectors by Competitive Effect in Clinton County. Each sector, especially Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, exhibits a positive Competitive Effect. Meanwhile, Leisure and Hospitality has a declining Industry Shift value of 57. However, this does not necessarily indicate a negative outcome. A negative Industry Shift combined with a Positive Competitive effect indicates that while the Leisure and Hospitality sector is declining nationally, it is growing in Clinton County. This suggests that Clinton County is outperforming the national trend and successfully expanding employment in this sector.

Figure 1: Top Five sectors in Clinton County by Competitive Effect, 2023

Clinton County Top Five sectors by Competitive Effect, 2023

  Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

For example, an article published by the Federal Reserve in July 2023 stated the pandemic hit the Leisure and Hospitality sector the hardest.2 According to their research, national employment in the leisure and hospitality sector remains approximately 350,000 jobs below February 2020 levels. In contrast, Michigan has continued to expand its tourism promotion efforts.

In July 2024, Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed a budget for fiscal year 2025 that included $30 million towards the Pure Michigan Campaign.3 This is a state funded marketing initiative that promotes Michigan as a travel and tourism destination by highlighting its outdoor recreation opportunities and local communities. This investment may help explain why employment in the leisure and hospitality sector continues to grow in Clinton County, even as it declines nationally.

Figure 2: Shift-Share Analysis of Six-Digit NAICS Industries in Clinton County, 2018-2023

Clinton County Shift-Share Analysis of Six-Digit NAICS Industries, 2018-2023

Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

When breaking down NAICS codes, more insight is provided on how each industry in different sectors compares to the U.S. counterpart. Industry trends are shown below:

  • Nonresidential Plumbing and HVAC Contractors showed positive values across all four shift-share components. The positive Industry Shift reflects strong national growth in this industry, while the positive Competitive Effect suggests that Clinton County is outperforming national trends.
  • Metal Merchant Wholesalers showed a negative Industry Shift but a positive Competitive Effect, meaning the industry is declining nationally, yet Clinton County is outperforming the U.S. in job growth for this sector.
  • For Special Tool, Die, Jig, and Fixture Manufacturing, the negative Industry Shift and Net Effect indicate that the industry is declining both nationally and within Clinton County. However, the positive Competitive Effect suggests that Clinton County is outperforming the national trend. Despite this local competitive advantage, the industry is still experiencing job losses in the region.

[1] It is important to note that this effect can be positive even if regional employment is declining. This indicates that regional employment is declining at a slower rate than national employment.

[2] Brendan J. Chapuis, Seth Murray, and Brendan M. Price, “The Persistent Urban Shortfall in Leisure and Hospitality Employment”, FEDS Notes, July 28th, 2023, The Fed - The Persistent Urban Shortfall in Leisure and Hospitality Employment

[3] Executive Office of the Governor, Communications Division, “Governor Whitmer Signs Balanced, Bipartisan FY25 Budget”, Executive Office of the Governor, July 24th, 2024,  Governor Whitmer Signs Balanced, Bipartisan FY25 Budget